TABLE V
Estimated Effects of
"Dollarization" and Euro-adoption on Trade and Output
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Potential Effects (% GDP) of: |
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% ’95 Trade with: |
’95 Trade |
Dollarization |
Join EMU |
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$ Zone |
€ Zone |
(% GDP) |
Trade |
GDP |
Trade |
GDP |
|
Albania |
3 |
75 |
47 |
3 |
1 |
70 |
23 |
|
Algeria |
13 |
62 |
59 |
15 |
5 |
72 |
24 |
|
Angola |
50 |
34 |
110 |
109 |
36 |
74 |
25 |
|
Australia |
14 |
12 |
42 |
12 |
4 |
10 |
3 |
|
Bangladesh |
20 |
21 |
37 |
15 |
5 |
15 |
5 |
|
Belize |
44 |
8 |
103 |
90 |
30 |
16 |
5 |
|
Brazil |
23 |
24 |
15 |
7 |
2 |
7 |
2 |
|
Burundi |
7 |
75 |
33 |
4 |
1 |
49 |
16 |
|
Cambodia |
2 |
8 |
80 |
3 |
1 |
13 |
4 |
|
Canada |
76 |
5 |
73 |
111 |
36 |
8 |
3 |
|
Chile |
21 |
17 |
55 |
24 |
8 |
19 |
6 |
|
China |
13 |
11 |
40 |
10 |
3 |
9 |
3 |
|
Colombia |
38 |
18 |
36 |
27 |
9 |
13 |
4 |
|
Congo Dem. Rep. |
13 |
57 |
59 |
16 |
5 |
67 |
22 |
|
Costa Rica |
53 |
17 |
86 |
91 |
30 |
30 |
10 |
|
Denmark |
4 |
49 |
64 |
6 |
2 |
63 |
21 |
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Dominican Rep. |
76 |
7 |
63 |
95 |
31 |
9 |
3 |
|
Egypt Arab Rep. |
18 |
38 |
53 |
19 |
6 |
41 |
13 |
|
Ethiopia |
12 |
53 |
38 |
9 |
3 |
40 |
13 |
|
Fiji |
10 |
4 |
115 |
22 |
7 |
9 |
3 |
|
Gambia |
2 |
51 |
132 |
6 |
2 |
135 |
45 |
|
Ghana |
12 |
40 |
60 |
15 |
5 |
48 |
16 |
|
Guinea |
15 |
56 |
48 |
14 |
5 |
54 |
18 |
|
Guyana |
28 |
12 |
211 |
120 |
39 |
50 |
16 |
|
Haiti |
67 |
13 |
36 |
48 |
16 |
9 |
3 |
|
Honduras |
52 |
17 |
91 |
95 |
31 |
31 |
10 |
|
Iceland |
11 |
34 |
67 |
15 |
5 |
46 |
15 |
|
India |
17 |
29 |
28 |
9 |
3 |
16 |
5 |
|
Indonesia |
13 |
15 |
52 |
13 |
4 |
15 |
5 |
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Iran Islamic Rep. |
1 |
40 |
36 |
1 |
0 |
29 |
10 |
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Israel |
25 |
38 |
69 |
34 |
11 |
52 |
17 |
|
Jamaica |
53 |
9 |
136 |
145 |
48 |
24 |
8 |
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Japan |
27 |
12 |
17 |
9 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
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Jordan |
7 |
24 |
126 |
18 |
6 |
62 |
20 |
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Kenya |
6 |
35 |
73 |
9 |
3 |
50 |
17 |
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Korea |
22 |
11 |
67 |
30 |
10 |
14 |
5 |
|
Kuwait |
19 |
24 |
104 |
39 |
13 |
51 |
17 |
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Lao PDR |
2 |
16 |
61 |
2 |
1 |
20 |
7 |
|
Lebanon |
12 |
51 |
77 |
18 |
6 |
78 |
26 |
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Madagascar |
4 |
55 |
55 |
4 |
1 |
60 |
20 |
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Malawi |
8 |
26 |
73 |
12 |
4 |
37 |
12 |
|
Malaysia |
17 |
10 |
194 |
68 |
22 |
40 |
13 |
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Mauritania |
5 |
60 |
112 |
11 |
4 |
134 |
44 |
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Mauritius |
1 |
36 |
122 |
2 |
1 |
87 |
29 |
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Mexico |
79 |
6 |
59 |
93 |
31 |
7 |
2 |
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Mongolia |
8 |
17 |
106 |
16 |
5 |
35 |
12 |
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Morocco |
5 |
59 |
61 |
6 |
2 |
72 |
24 |
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Mozambique |
7 |
22 |
88 |
13 |
4 |
40 |
13 |
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Myanmar |
3 |
5 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
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Nepal |
12 |
22 |
59 |
14 |
5 |
26 |
9 |
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New Zealand |
13 |
11 |
59 |
16 |
5 |
13 |
4 |
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Nicaragua |
38 |
16 |
91 |
69 |
23 |
29 |
10 |
|
Nigeria |
35 |
34 |
30 |
21 |
7 |
21 |
7 |
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Norway |
6 |
43 |
70 |
9 |
3 |
61 |
20 |
|
Pakistan |
12 |
20 |
36 |
9 |
3 |
15 |
5 |
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Papua New Guinea |
3 |
11 |
103 |
6 |
2 |
23 |
8 |
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Paraguay |
19 |
8 |
48 |
19 |
6 |
8 |
2 |
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Peru |
24 |
18 |
28 |
13 |
4 |
10 |
3 |
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Philippines |
24 |
10 |
81 |
39 |
13 |
16 |
5 |
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Romania |
4 |
62 |
59 |
5 |
2 |
73 |
24 |
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Rwanda |
23 |
50 |
36 |
16 |
5 |
36 |
12 |
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Saudi Arabia |
20 |
21 |
72 |
29 |
10 |
31 |
10 |
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Seychelles |
0 |
16 |
104 |
1 |
0 |
33 |
11 |
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Sierra Leone |
14 |
54 |
39 |
11 |
4 |
42 |
14 |
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Singapore |
16 |
10 |
356 |
114 |
38 |
71 |
24 |
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South Africa |
10 |
29 |
50 |
10 |
3 |
29 |
10 |
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Sri Lanka |
17 |
16 |
82 |
27 |
9 |
26 |
9 |
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Sweden |
8 |
48 |
76 |
12 |
4 |
72 |
24 |
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Switzerland |
8 |
61 |
66 |
11 |
3 |
81 |
27 |
|
Tanzania |
6 |
26 |
63 |
7 |
2 |
33 |
11 |
|
Thailand |
14 |
13 |
90 |
25 |
8 |
23 |
8 |
|
Trinidad & Tobago |
42 |
9 |
97 |
81 |
27 |
18 |
6 |
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Tunisia |
3 |
75 |
93 |
5 |
2 |
141 |
46 |
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Turkey |
9 |
46 |
44 |
8 |
3 |
41 |
13 |
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Uganda |
4 |
58 |
32 |
2 |
1 |
38 |
12 |
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United Kingdom |
12 |
53 |
58 |
13 |
4 |
62 |
20 |
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United States |
n/a |
14 |
24 |
n/a |
n/a |
7 |
2 |
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Uruguay |
9 |
18 |
38 |
7 |
2 |
14 |
5 |
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Venezuela |
50 |
10 |
48 |
48 |
16 |
10 |
3 |
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Vietnam |
4 |
16 |
83 |
6 |
2 |
26 |
9 |
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Yemen Rep. |
7 |
13 |
73 |
10 |
3 |
18 |
6 |
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Zambia |
5 |
17 |
91 |
9 |
3 |
31 |
10 |
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Zimbabwe |
4 |
21 |
91 |
8 |
3 |
38 |
13 |
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Average |
4 |
48 |
69 |
5 |
2 |
54 |
18 |
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Currency Boards |
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Argentina |
16 |
23 |
17 |
5 |
2 |
8 |
3 |
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Bulgaria |
5 |
56 |
103 |
11 |
4 |
114 |
38 |
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Djibouti |
3 |
38 |
99 |
6 |
2 |
74 |
24 |
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Hong Kong China |
16 |
10 |
303 |
97 |
32 |
63 |
21 |
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Dollarized |
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Panama |
12 |
7 |
199 |
47 |
15 |
27 |
9 |
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Recent Dollarizers |
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Ecuador |
45 |
16 |
58 |
53 |
17 |
19 |
6 |
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El Salvador |
50 |
14 |
59 |
59 |
19 |
16 |
5 |
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Guatemala |
44 |
10 |
45 |
39 |
13 |
9 |
3 |
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EMU Members |
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Austria |
4 |
69 |
78 |
6 |
2 |
108 |
36 |
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Finland |
7 |
35 |
68 |
10 |
3 |
48 |
16 |
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France |
6 |
56 |
45 |
5 |
2 |
50 |
17 |
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Germany |
7 |
46 |
46 |
6 |
2 |
43 |
14 |
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Greece |
7 |
64 |
43 |
6 |
2 |
56 |
18 |
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Ireland |
11 |
35 |
134 |
30 |
10 |
93 |
31 |
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Italy |
6 |
51 |
51 |
7 |
2 |
52 |
17 |
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Netherlands |
6 |
57 |
100 |
12 |
4 |
114 |
38 |
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Portugal |
4 |
67 |
74 |
5 |
2 |
99 |
33 |
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Spain |
5 |
61 |
47 |
5 |
2 |
57 |
19 |
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Potential EMU Joiners |
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Hungary |
4 |
71 |
76 |
6 |
2 |
107 |
35 |
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Poland |
3 |
60 |
50 |
3 |
1 |
61 |
20 |
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CFA Franc Zone |
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Benin |
5 |
45 |
63 |
6 |
2 |
57 |
19 |
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Burkina Faso |
4 |
71 |
41 |
3 |
1 |
59 |
19 |
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Cameroon |
3 |
69 |
46 |
3 |
1 |
63 |
21 |
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Central African Republic |
2 |
72 |
49 |
2 |
1 |
70 |
23 |
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Chad |
6 |
75 |
76 |
9 |
3 |
114 |
38 |
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Comoros |
2 |
70 |
64 |
2 |
1 |
89 |
29 |
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Congo Rep. |
14 |
77 |
128 |
35 |
11 |
196 |
65 |
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Cote d'Ivoire |
7 |
73 |
77 |
11 |
4 |
112 |
37 |
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Equatorial Guinea |
21 |
45 |
154 |
66 |
22 |
137 |
45 |
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Gabon |
46 |
33 |
93 |
86 |
28 |
61 |
20 |
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Guinea-Bissau |
2 |
73 |
47 |
2 |
1 |
69 |
23 |
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Mali |
4 |
51 |
60 |
5 |
2 |
60 |
20 |
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Niger |
10 |
71 |
40 |
8 |
3 |
57 |
19 |
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Senegal |
5 |
69 |
69 |
6 |
2 |
95 |
31 |
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Togo |
6 |
42 |
75 |
9 |
3 |
63 |
21 |
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Uses Indian Rupee |
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Bhutan |
3 |
13 |
77 |
4 |
1 |
20 |
7 |
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ECCA Member |
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St. Kitts and Nevis |
21 |
2 |
123 |
51 |
17 |
6 |
2 |
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Notes |
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1: Currency Union predicted to triple trade. |
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2: Each percentage point in trade/GDP predicted to
increase real GDP per capita by .33%. |
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